14 August 2010
Updated..
“100% Free Daily UK and Irish Horse Racing Advice”
How the Betfair markets take shape...
A standard horse race market on Betfair can be broken down into four stages.
Stage 1. The evening before racing until around 9.30 am race day
Stage 2. From around 9.30 am until 30 minutes before the off.
Stage 3. The final 30 minutes prior to the start of the race.
Stage 4. The in-play market
Stage 1. The evening before racing until 9.30 am race day.
This is the early stage of the race market. There is very little liquidity in the market at this stage and prices on offer are not competitive indicated by the total book percentage at the top of the back and lay columns. The book percentage should be used as an instant guide as to the competitiveness of the prices on offer. Without going into unnecessary detail at this time about the book % it should be noted that in a competitive market the % at the top of the back and lay columns will be as close to 100% as possible.
An uncompetitive book% typical of an evening before, to early morning race market.
A competitive book% typical of a market from mid morning onwards.
Backing and laying in a stage one market is fraught with danger any serious amount of money put up at odds that are way out of line will be gobbled up by switched on punters and will often leave you with very poor value bets. You have been warned!
Stage 2. From around 9.30 am until fifteen minutes before the off.
From 9.30 onwards the Betfair race markets begin to take a more competitive shape.
It is around this time that bookmakers begin to put up early prices on their web
sites and in their shops. During this period larger amounts of money begin to enter
the market. The odds about fancied/un-fancied horses at this time can be pretty volatile
as punters scramble to get their bets matched. By around 11.00am the markets tend
to settle again. At this point i will take a look at my selections price action to
find out which horses are looking likely to start within my price range. I will cross
off my list of selections any horse with odds of 12.00 (11/1) or higer.
Stage 3. The final 30 minutes prior to the start of the race.(on-course market)
This market is also known as the on-course market. Bookmakers on course will put
up their opening show and the volume of money entering the Betfair market will begin
to increase heavily. Volatility during this stage can be very high and some good
laying opportunities can be found!
Stage 4. The in-play market.
Once the race starts the market closes for a few seconds and any unmatched bets are
cancelled before re-opening. This is now the in- play market, and the prices about
each runner are extremely volatile. Punters are now betting on what they see on the
TV as they watch the race develop. This is where a little research about the race
can pay off and produce some excellent laying opportunities.
Finding value lays (on-course market)
If you have ever tried trading in pre-race odds on Betfair then you will probably
know how difficult a skill it is to master. Having spent some time previously attempting
to become successful at trading in odds i can certainly say that those who are successful
deserve every penny they make. One thing i did become more aware of during that time
was how the Betfair market reacts to odds movement.
Within the market every horse has a percentage chance of winning the race. The odds
on offer represent that percentage. On Betfair the market is very competitive and
the “book % for a horse race is usually between 100.5% and 103% from mid-morning
onwards. If we were to add up every horses odds as percentages it would equal the
book %. So to keep it simple we will say that the market on Betfair is framed to
100%. This means that during the period prior to the start of the race the odds for
each horse can move up down or sideways but at any point if we were to freeze the
Betfair screen and add together the odds as percentages for each runner it would
total 100%. In knowing this to be true we can begin to understand how odds move and
predict odds movement.
Example.
In a two runner horse race horse A and horse B are both being backed at prices which indicate they have a 50% chance of winning the race.
Horse A =EVENS 50% (2.00)
Horse B=EVENS 50% (2.00)
BOOK% 100
More money now starts to be placed on horse A and its price adjusts.
Horse A = 4/6 60% (1.67)
Because this market is framed to 100% the price for horse B will also have to adjust to compensate for horse A.
Horse B = 6/4 40% (2.50)
So the market in our example race would now look like this,
Horse A = 4/6 60% (1.67)
Horse B= 6/4 40% (2.50)
Book% 100
The above scenario is a simple example but does an excellent job of demonstrating how odds move to maintain a 100% book
Size of movement
A common misconception,
You notice that a runner has been backed on Betfair from 34.00(33/1) into 17.00(16/1). This may seem like a big move but it will only have a small affect in the market!
33/1 (34.00) = 3% chance
into
16/1 (17.00) = 6% chance
So in the above example the odds have actually only moved by 3%. Now lets take a look at a price move at the front of the market,
2/1 (3.00) = 33% chance
Into
Evens (2.00) =50% chance
In this example the market will have to adjust by 17% and will require the odds of other runners in the race to adjust to compensate.
By watching the odds movement during the on-course stage in the betting it is possible
to lay your shortlisted horses at some excellent prices. The easiest way to monitor
price moves is to concentrate on the favourite. In monitoring the favourites odds
you can get a feel for what is happening in the betting and begin to predict price
movement. Also its important to remember that most of the big % price moves will
come from horses at the front of the market (normally the first 3 or 4 in the betting
or horses under 9.00)
The later the better. The best time to place value lay bets is within the final 5 minutes of the betting. Large amounts of money enter the market sometimes causing big moves.
If the odds about the favourite begin to drift (get larger) its very likely that one or sometimes even two of the horses at the front of the market are being backed. I will check to see if my selection is being backed. If it is, then i would take no action as the odds are getting shorter. However, if my selections odds are getting larger in line with the favourites, with only minutes/seconds to go i would lay my selection at the best price i could get. If my selection is the favourite i would also lay at this point.
If the odds about the favourite begin to steam (get smaller) this will have a big effect on the other horses at the front of the market and is generally a good time to lay. I would still check that my selections odds are actually getting larger to compensate for the move. Occasionally another horse at the front of the market will begin to steam with the favourite this causes big drifts to occur about the other fancied runners and present excellent laying opportunities. If my selection is the favourite in this instance i would take no action.
If the odds about the favourite are stable. If there is no real price action i will simply do nothing and wait until the last seconds to place my bets. There can still be movement in the market but i find it a more reliable signal when the favourites odds are shifting.
Important note. If i have watched the betting but have seen no decent laying opportunities then i always lay seconds before the start and do not use the Betfair SP service. The reason for this is that more often than not, i find prices tend to be slightly bigger at SP.
Most of the time i use the above method in maiden races as they tend to have big price movements just before the start of the race. The nature of maiden races with little or no form to go on lend themselves well to rumour and “in the know” betting. Punters tend to overreact to steaming and drifting horses causing the big price moves.
If your are new to Betting Exchanges i recommend that you take the time to watch the market just before the start of a race in order to get used to how the odds move. Practise by noting down prices that you think are good laying opportunities about a horse and then wait to see if those prices are lower than the Betfair SP. Once you can consistently beat the SP around 75 to 80% of the time then start placing real lay bets.
Strategy Articles: Thoughts on price movement, book %, and laying
By AH Online Punter team
in this article I put forward some of my thoughts on how the betting exchange markets take shape, book % and how to lay horses below starting price. I tend to lay horses at the front end of the betting and only in certain race types but the methodology in this article can be applied to both backing and laying.
©theonlinepunter2010
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