14 August 2010
Updated..
“100% Free Daily UK and Irish Horse Racing Advice”
Strategy Articles : The Summer Maidens Flat laying system.
By the online punter team
As the name suggests, the “summer maidens” flat lay system focuses on laying short priced horses competing in UK and Irish maiden races during the flat racing season. This logical betting system has produced consistent profits at an average of 16% return on investment since 2004. Selections can be easily found and bets placed the evening before racing for those who cannot access live betting markets. The method can also be semi automated by using one of the best horse racing sites available,
www.horseracebase.com
About the system,
The logic behind the summer maidens lay system is simple, to lay over hyped horses running in maiden races.
Example horse type,
“ The favourite for this 6f 2yo maiden race is making its debut and comes from a top yard and has a top jockey on board. He has been backed from 2/1 into evens all morning”
This seems to be an appealing betting proposition.
An alternative view,
“ The favourite for this 6f 2yo maiden race is to be respected coming from such a yard and with a top jockey on board, but has never had a competitive race or seen a racecourse in their life. Also breeding suggests that it would be better suited to a longer trip and three of the other runners have had a run in the last 30 days.”
This favourite now looks very overpriced and at 2.0, (evens) and is looking like a solid lay bet.
Of course, this type of horse does go on to win often. This helps keep the system profitable because a lot of punters will follow the money on the “hype horse” and get rewarded when it wins, thus ensuring plenty of money for the next bad value “good thing”.
Statistics to back this up!
Strike rate for all 2/3yo favourites running in flat maiden races (UK and IRE) having had at least one previous run. (since 2004)
www.horseracebase.com
The results show a 41% strike rate for all horses with at least one previous run.
Strike rate for all 2/3yo favourites running in flat maiden races (UK and IRE) making their racecourse debut. (since 2004)
www.horseracebase.com
The results show a strike rate of 32% a difference of -9%.
Price ranges (odds) for maiden debutantes,
www.horseracebase.com
The table above shows that laying this type of “favourite” at 9/4 and under is a profitable system. By Combining the logic behind the strategy and the system builder tool at HRB we have defined a clear set of rules for the “summer maidens flat lay system”
Summer Maidens System Rules..
- UK and Irish maiden races on the flat up to 1 mile. (8f)
- No All Weather races to be included.
- Horse will be making its career debut. ( no previous runs )
- 2yo/3yo Only
- A minimum of three horses in the race will have run in the past 90 days.
- A maximum permitted Betfair SP of 4.0
- Selection does not have to be market favourite
The summer maidens system will produce between 100 and 120 lay bets during the summer flat season.
Note, If you are a member over at horseracebase.com you can easily automate the selection process using their excellent system builder tool.
Other pointers.
As none of the system selections have any racing form to go on, it can be useful to check out going and distance preferences as regards the horses breeding.
Be extra cautious when a trainer with a historically poor record in maiden races has a horse that is being heavily backed.
Do not be put off laying selections if the trainer has an excellent record in maiden races, this scenario is how the system makes the bulk of its profits.
If you are monitoring the live betting markets, it can pay to check out the price action at around five minuets before the start. On numerous occasions using this method during the 2009 season, prices about our selections began to drift in the betting at this time. Look for about a 3% to 5% move and consider laying at the current price. Beating the SP can really boost returns.
Happy Punting, theonlinepunterteam.
©theonlinepunter2010
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